In my long and winded yet incomplete analysis of Siacoin, I found a range of probabilities that the coin could hit. The range which changes every second can be pinpointed from $.30 to $1.26 depending on the hour. The correlation I used was from two coins whose circulating supply was similar and with market caps above Siacoin. Ripple and Cardano both had the similar circulating supply and a market cap far above Siacoin, which could be seen as a push for the coin to reach. Page one of the excel sheet you’ll see the analysis I just subscribed above, page two and three uses a scatter plot to depict the correlation coefficient of returns of Siacoin/Cardano and Siacoin/Ripple. Overall, there is a 15% correlation between Siacoin/Cardano and a 20% correlation between Siacoin/Ripple returns. That is simply the correlation of percentage returns and nothing else! Page one is more in line with speculation and emotion driven momentum which the crypto-market seems to abide by at the moment.
Click the link below to access the simulation spreadsheet.
