Putting a Value On Tron (TRX)


The big question everybody asks is do you think {insert coin name} will rise? Or, Do you think I should invest in said coin? The answer to those questions will usually result in the same answer of “maybe”. Why? As analysts we are always attempting to put a figure on a stock or a bond. Today, analysts are attempting to dive head first into the difficult, confusing, and volatile world of cryptocurrency.

ICOs, similar to IPOs, offer a horrible mix between a preferred stock (NO VOTING RIGHTS) and a zero coupon bond (NAME IMPLIES). Why would anybody in their right mind “invest” money into such a thing? Well the answer to that question lies behind the technology behind the company that offered the coin or token. The coin itself essentially gave the company capital free from paying dividends and 100% retention of the company through outright ownership.

Although, don’t be alarmed! For cryptocurrency and the blockchain technology are going nowhere and are here to stay. You can still make income thanks to the simply economic factor of Supply and Demand. SOME of these coins have value, but for the majority of the coins be prepared to read about them on some website years from now as a FAILURE.

Aside from the darkness of reality one coin that caught my eye several weeks ago was TRON (TRX). At first I did some quick technical analysis to see if it was even worth looking at and the coin passed my first test. As i’m writing this TRON is sitting at a price of $0.063583, market cap of $4,180,447,598.00, and a circulating supply of 65,748,192,475 which is going to stay the same for about two years.

Besides the low price and somewhat high circulating supply, the idea behind it was simply and worth a deeper look into. As the site reads, “TRON is a blockchain-based decentralized protocol that aims to construct a worldwide free content entertainment system with the blockchain and distributed storage technology. The protocol allows each user to freely publish, store and own data, and in the decentralized autonomous form, decides the distribution, subscription and push of contents and enables content creators by releasing, circulating and dealing with digital assets, thus forming a decentralized content entertainment ecosystem”.

How will they do this? Through their 6-step program detailed below:

  1. (08/17 – 12/18) Exodus: The free platform for peer to peer distribution, storage, and content
  2. (01/19 – 06/20) Odyssey: Economic incentives put in place to encourage content creation and empowerment
  3. (07/20 – 07/21) Great Voyage: Individual ICO capabilities
  4. (08/21 – 03/23) Apollo: Ability for content producers to issue personal tokens (TRON 20 Token)
  5. (04/23 – 09/25) Star Trek: Create a decentralized forecasting and gaming platform
  6. (04/23 – 0/25) Eternity: Fundraise and monetize based on the community growth

What is the potential value of each of these steps?

  1. Exodus, a mirror between Wikipedia and IPFS. According to a New York Times article Wikipedia could be worth as much as $5 billion, while other reports state that Wikipedia is worth “Tens of billions of dollars”. On a conservative note let’s just use the $5 billion stated and ignore the latter potential value. ($5,000,000,000.00)
  2. Odyssey, similar to Raiden Network Token (RDN) with a $5.25 current price as I type this. If we use my Excel Spreadsheet Price Simulator we can figure out the diluted value of RDN which comes out to be $10.54 x 100,000,000 max supply and equals $1,054,029,660.17 as a final market value ($1,054,029,660.17)
  3. Great Voyage, basically they need a blockchain similar to Ethereum to create smart contracts. We can simply take the current market cap of Ethereum today ($85,826,153,671.00)
  4. Apollo: We combined this value with that of the previous stage.
  5. Star Trek, a mirror of Augur. We can take the market cap of the coin at the current price of $80.39. ($884,281,200.00)
  6. Eternity: Wrapping it all up and getting the parts to work as one.

If we add the total potential values from each of the steps we get a total value of $92,764,464,531.17. Now divide $92,764,464,531.17 by the total circulating supply (not the current circulating supply because in two years all the coins will be released) of 100,000,000,000 coins and you will get a value of $.92764 .

At a $.9276 future value and a $0.069725 current price the expected 7-year return would be 1,230%!

Remember that this is a case situation and no guarantee can be made on the outcome of your investment based on this knowledge.


1 Comment

  1. Newby here in the space thus have patience please what class or classes did you take to formulate these senarios and computations.? Just interested in your knowledge and how I could be able to arrive and think like you.


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